Center Blog

With all the (understandable) attention being paid to the race for the White House, the various races for the U.S. Senate are being widely overlooked. That’s particularly the case in the entire Mid-Atlantic region, where only two Senate seats are being contested — especially since in both cases the incumbents are strong favorites to win (Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey and Joe Biden of Delaware, who is simultaneously running for Vice President).

Yet the stakes are particularly high in the Senate because at present, neither of the two major parties has a clear majority. Unlike in the House of Representatives, where Democrats predominate, both the Republicans and the Democrats presently hold 49 Senate seats. The balance of power is controlled by two independent Senators: Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. These independent Senators currently throw their support to the Democrats, giving them a slim 51-49 vote majority. However, Lieberman has endorsed Republican presidential candidate John McCain and could decide to caucus with the Republicans in the Senate at any time. In the case of such a 50-50 split in the Senate, Vice President Dick Cheney would cast the tie-breaking vote.

The November 4 election, however, seems likely to shift this precarious balance. Unlike the House of Representatives, in which all 435 members stand for election every two years, Senators have six-year terms with one-third of the seats being up for election every two years. In 2008, there are the usual 33 seats up plus two more to replace temporary Senators appointed by the Governors of Wyoming (after a death) and Mississippi (after a retirement) for a total of 35 Senate races.

Even before factoring in political considerations, the Republicans have the heavier burden this year because they have to “defend” 21 elected seats plus the two appointed seats for a total of 23 seats. Only 12 seats are among those currently held by Democrats. A further burden for the Republicans is that five of their incumbent Senators are retiring (Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Virginia) versus zero retirements for the Democrats. At present, the seats in Virginia, Colorado and possibly New Mexico seem likely to switch to Democratic control. A challenge by a right-wing independent candidate in usually conservative Idaho also has that race slightly unsettled, pointing to a net loss of 2, 3, or 4 seats for the Republicans.

Among incumbents running for re-election, Senator Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) is currently on trial for corruption charges, and is slightly behind in polls (although the presence of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin on the GOP national ticket may help Stevens). Five other Republican incumbents are now statistically tied with or trailing their Democratic challengers, including Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Gordon Smith of Oregon, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi. The sole Democratic incumbent facing a serious challenge, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, now has a double-digit lead. In total, this suggests that Republicans could potentially lose between 2 and 6 additional seats they currently hold.

A further potential complication is that either two or three incumbent Senators will be leaving their seats for the White House: Barack Obama of Illinois and Joe Biden of Delaware, or John McCain of Arizona. All three states have Democratic governors and would be highly likely to appoint other Democrats to those seats; thus a McCain victory would deprive the Republicans of another seat. (It is widely assumed that if McCain wins, Lieberman would leave the Senate for a post as a Cabinet Secretary. However, Connecticut has a Republican governor so that net loss of one seat could be made up that way, or by a switch in party affiliation by Lieberman).

So what does this all amount to? The best case scenario for the Republicans seems to be the loss of 4-6 Senate seats. The worst case for Republicans – if Democrats nationwide are buoyed by a strong showing by Obama-Biden, could be 9 or even 10 seats. That could bring them over the “magic number” needed to end a “filibuster” – a procedural delaying maneuver that requires 60 votes to overcome. This is an extremely long shot in 2008, but could be more within reach in 2010.

The House seems certain to stay under Democratic control, perhaps with an increased majority of about 10-12 seats (for a total of about 250 of 435 seats, or 56%). With Obama running steadily, if narrowly, ahead in most polls, there is the distinct possibility that in 2009 the U.S. will experience “unified party control” by the Democrats in both house of Congress and the Presidency — for the first time since 1995 and for only the second time since 1969.

By Raymond A. Smith, Ph.D.
Adjunct Assistant Professor of Political Science
Columbia University and New York University

© Raymond A. Smith, 2008